16 days, ding Zuyu of the personage inside course of study is in " annual meeting of 13 Asias estate and international seminar " on express, below current market environment, the difficulty that house price continues to rise considerably is greater. In the meantime, in " Chinese estate situation was unscrambled 2008 sentence beforehand with prospective trend " on forum, director of research center of Fudan University estate Professor Hua Wei expresses, predict to ended guild carries policy 2008 coherent, continue to tighten up money, but the last stronghold that Shanghai estate is Chinese estate market.
To hind of city forecast, ding Zuyu thinks, with respect to house price character, market value of whole wants to adjust for certain, want to seek reasonable, likely price, a lot of buildings dish the price is a bit high still, still have very big adjustment space. Clinch a deal the quantity, estate market is those who comparative is not hopeful. Look, the battle of this fight hand-in-hand between room look forward to already unavoidable.
Clinch a deal measure whole to drop
Data shows, 1 ～ in June, lou Pancheng of countrywide most city handed in a quantity to had appeared " cutting sb in two at the waist " . Above sea is exemple, the month all clinched a deal first half of the year last year the area is 1.74 million square metre, now year first half of the year, the month all clinchs a deal the area is 860 thousand square metre only, drop compared to the same period 50% .
This year June clinch a deal data shows at the same time, shanghai clinchs a deal the quantity is 1.009 million square metre about, with photograph of the corresponding period was compared last year, clinch a deal the quantity is to glide more 62% ; Beijing clinchs a deal the quantity is 1.34 million square metre about, glide compared to the same period 12% ; Chongqing clinchs a deal the quantity is six hundred and ninety-four thousand eight hundred square metre, glide compared to the same period 39% .
Measure descendent reason to clinching a deal, ding Zuyu thinks to be talked because of the ground, main with can make work supply drops, the price the respect element such as exorbitant, demand is relative. With respect to Shanghai character, but carry out supply relatively
Little it is Shanghai clinchs a deal the main factor that the quantity glides considerably. Ding Zuyu expresses, since 2005, supply of Shanghai past years decreases ceaselessly. 2006 month all supply is 2.34 million square metre about, 2007 month all supply has 1.12 million square metre only. This shows, the supply 2007 is the half 2006 only. The market is using up source of the room that put an amount, this year month all supply has 890 thousand square metre only.
Capital catenary ruptures possibly
Ding Zuyu thinks, from clinch a deal in light of the quantity, estate market is those who comparative is not hopeful. Because credit is constrictive,cause shortage of estate market fund, current, development business faces the problem of capital catenary insecurity generally. Although, the 2nd flatlet borrows policy to become loose somewhat, but to investing a gender to buy the room is mixed perfective the demand that buy a house still has certain inhibition.
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